Best and Worst - Week 10
*Drink*. That was brutal. *Drink*. Ok, now let's get down to my best and worst of the week, and talk about how I got annihilated. As I said, it was a brutal week, but that's all part of the game. First off, the best.
This lineup was the highest score of my 8 lineups this week. This is in no way a brag because 139.16 is cashing and that's about it. I had Josh Allen in 3 other lineups and they all scored 136-139, but obviously, this one was the best. You guys know l love to roll with game stacks in my single entry and 3 max tournaments, but my lineups with a little more 1v1 correlation had greater success. I think it was just the nature of the beast that was week 10. I will have to check this theory, but it just felt like a week where a bunch of random guys scored or the touchdowns were hyper-concentrated as they were with Kyler and Kamara.
Allen balled as expected and even grabbed a few extra points with the receiving touchdown. Coming into the week we all knew Mike Davis was going to be chalk. The matchup was tough, but the Bucs give it up to pass-catching running backs so he could have easily gotten there at 4k if it weren't for the injury. I played him in 3 of my 8 lineups, which surprisingly ended up being my higher scoring lineups. I said in the preview that the slate hinged on Davis, and if you faded him then you made the right move. I faded him in 5 lineups, but the builds were subpar so I missed the opportunity for a serious edge in those. Gibson was a must for me this week. I had him in most of my lineups, and he salvaged much of my day. Gibson was in a great spot. I discussed the matchup in my Week 10 Preview and last week I hit on why the Washington RB's were trending up overall. I never considered McKissic, but the Washington coaching staff still seems enamored with him. Regardless, Gibson snagged 2 touchdowns and got me what I needed. I had Chubb as my top leverage play of the week. In fact, he was leverage off my other leverage play, which was Miles Sanders. Chubb had a solid return but had me nervous as he was virtually non-existent until the second half. I was in full tilt mode when he went out of bounds to end the game, but turns out, I did more damage to my lineups than Chubb not scoring.
Diggs was in a great spot and expected to be highly owned. He did his thing and finally got back into the endzone. Kamara scored 3 touchdowns so, naturally, fading him and pivoting to Thomas was a sucker punch to the gonads. Yes, I just quoted Maxwell Smart. Apparently, everyone had the same idea so I wasn't gaining that much leverage anyways. Aiyiuk was the guy I had as the San Franciso bring-back where possible. San Franciso is determined to manufacture touches for him regardless of matchup. Plus, trailing in a dome never hurts. Seattle TE strikes again! This one doesn't bother me because I pay down at TE to afford expensive game stacks. Tight End is a high variance position so I understand the low score is highly probable going in, but paying up at TE is just a losing move. Kelce is the only guy worth it. I feel as though you're better off dealing with the variance in the 2.5k-3.5k range than you are in the 4-5k range. It simply affords you a higher overall ceiling. Michael Thomas made sure to cap that though. This was the most I paid for defense all year. Cleveland was fine but did not generate the sacks and turnovers I expected. Texans were $500 cheaper and scored 5 points while the Browns had 6.
Essentially, this lineup should have had Kamara with Aiyiuk as the bring back rather than Thomas. I could have then dropped down at WR while eliminating Mike Davis or Nick Chubb. This would have made a massive difference, but I'm not here to be captain woulda', coulda', shoulda'. I faded a stud, and this was ramification for being wrong. Let's move on to the worst, shall we? *Drink* Here we go.
Goff was my highest owned quarterback of the week. Ok, that's all you really need to know, see you next week! Kidding. Well, sort of. The Rams had 3 rushing TD's, by 2 different running backs, inside the 10-yard line, and I played the QB. If you don't think that's a fantasy football nightmare then you live a terrifying life. For me, it's the worst. This is the risk of a double-stack though. I have had a ton of success double stacking in small field tournaments this year so I'm not going to completely eject over missing on this one. Goff got the 300-yard bonus I wanted, he just didn't have any touchdowns. So be it.
I already discussed Chubb and Gibson so let's hit on Sanders. He was a solid leverage play for me this week due to game script expectations and price, but I did temper overall expectations based on matchup. Still, I thought 20 points was in the cards for him, but Boston Scott stole the show with Clement sneaking in the other Eagles TD. Much like Goff, that's just the way it goes. I did expect Sanders to be around 20% owned because all week I was hearing him mentioned him as a gpp play so I knew I wasn't getting Nick Chubb ownership. He was a good process play for those of us who rolled with Sanders but he left a ton of fantasy goodness on the table.
Kupp and Woods simply didn't get the TDs. I had plenty of Josh Reynolds, who paid off his price, but the worst lineups had Kupp and Woods. Lockett was just, meh. I didn't love him but felt like he had the best chance at blowing up even though I knew it was a tough matchup. Overall, being overweight the Rams/Seahawks is what hurt me this week. I like to go with full game stacks in small-mid size tournaments, but if the game environment isn't producing, then you're dead in the water, much like this lineup. I jammed in the Bengals because that was the available salary, and I thought they would get at least one point in that bad weather game. I was wrong but thankfully I only had the Bengals in this lineup. The rest had either the Texans or Browns.
I like to review my best and worst because it's so easy to be wholly focused on either the wins or the losses. Perspective is key in DFS and no one is dominating all the time. Well, maybe Empire Maker, but we knew that already. After a tough week, I like to take a step back and evaluate my process. Usually, it leads to me remembering that gpp's are simply mathematically difficult to win. We all know this but often forget it. I actually read an article today by @AllanLemDFS that reminded me of this. You should check it out after reading all of my stuff. #marketing
Summary
The Kamara fade changed the day
My double stacks didn't hit due to rushing TDs
In the past, this type of correlation has been profitable so I will maintain perspective moving forward.