Divisional Preview - Locks and Props
Welcome back, folks! I’m coming out of the gate with a Divisional round lock by going ahead and saying the obvious, Nick Chubb will be in my lineup. The cover boy is $6600 against the 4th worst run defense that faced one of the easiest run schedules all year. After getting vultured by Kareem Hunt a couple of times last week, I expect Chubb to get it going on the ground again this week and hit that 100-yard bonus. Always bold to start the article out with a lock, but why waste your time? Now let’s dive into the rest of these games and hit on some props.
Take me to:
Quarterback
Since there aren’t too many ways to go in the playoffs and the player pool is obvious at this point; I am going to list off my favorite salary-adjusted plays, in order. Starting it off is Baker Mayfield at $5300. We discussed this one on the podcast and I expect him to be reasonably chalky as well. The Chiefs speed teams up and generally force the opposing QB to keep pace. Baker has been very efficient the last two months and I believe that can continue here. You don’t need much from him, but he does allow you to pay up for studs at the 3 other positions. He is simply a solid value with reasonable upside. Mahomes and his ceiling against a pass funnel is easily the top play on paper but at $8k you’re paying a hefty price for the young stud. I will try to squeeze him into my lineup, but it will be difficult to jam in too many studs at his price. However, we know he has massive upside along with the best matchup of the week. If you can fit him in, don’t overthink it. I’ll round out my top 3 salary adjusted plays with Tom Brady. It was difficult to put him over Josh Allen but it’s purely about pricing at this point. The Saints defense has dominated this matchup twice already this year, but I don’t expect it to happen for the third straight time. Leading the league in seconds per drop back, I expect Brady to continue releasing the ball quickly against New Orleans’ disruptive pass rush. Keep in mind, both matchups happened before week 10, well before the Bucs offense started clicking so I can live with paying $6300 for Brady. I mentioned Josh Allen being fourth on my list, but if he’s first on yours then I understand. He has carved up opposing defenses who are top 10 in EPA. Basically, he’s been great against great defenses. If that continues, then he creates fantastic leverage on the field.
Running Back
I already discussed Nick Chubb as my lock this week and an obvious value at his workload and price so let’s move on to the rest of the field. Once again, I am all aboard the Cam Akers train at the incredible price of $9.95! Wait no, I mean $5700. Akers barely saw a price bump after 30 touches last week. Yes, I said 30! Outrageous workload for that price. I know Green Bay tried to beef up that Defensive line lately, but Akers should meet value on volume alone. These guys are my top two plays but if you want to throw a Running back in your flex then here’s who I suggest: Alvin Kamara at $7900, JK Dobbins at $6000, Hunt at $4800, and Aaron Jones at $6800. Those guys were listed in order based on salary and opportunity. I know Dobbins is the surprise there, but I think he could be the leverage play of the week. Lamar broke off a couple of long one’s last week that limited his upside and carry load. We know that’s the risk in that backfield, but hopefully, enough people were burned by him last week that it creates lower ownership. These guys are all studs so keep in mind it’s difficult to parse through these plays and pick a favorite. Also, I know Zack Moss is out but I still don’t like Devin Singletary’s ceiling.
Wide Receiver
I will simply be correlating where possible. For example, If I play Brady, then I am double stacking him at a bare minimum and trying to bring it back with Michael Thomas or Alvin Kamara. You could even look at Deonte Harris at $3500 if you need a salary saver. That’s the approach I will be taking when building my receiver corps. There is no doubt Tyreke Hill will potentially be the highest owned player on the slate, but we know his upside is massive. You really must choose between Hill and Kelce in your lineup. They will both be chalky, but Hill will be the higher owned play. Rob and I discussed plenty of alternative plays, so you don’t have to pay the price for Hill if you don’t want. Thomas at $6700 is one of my favorites this week as he is finally looking healthy coming into a potential shootout between old men. My favorite Tampa Bay receivers are Chris Godwin at $6100, AB at $5400 and then Big Mike Evans at $6400. My lineups will reflect that order as well. If Cooper Kupp is indeed ruled out, then you can plug Robert Woods in at $5900 while also considering a much cheaper Josh Reynolds and Van Jefferson. Each at or near the minimum of $3k. I love Cole Beasley in this spot and will go right back to him this week at $4900. I love when his price dips below $5k so he will be in any Lineups without Stefon Diggs. Finally, it’s likely that Jarvis Landry continues to see 10 or more targets which creates a nice floor/ceiling combo for the slot man priced at $5600. You can pivot to Rashard Higgins if you prefer. He sees 5+ targets a game right now but they are purely tournament targets. You’re basically paying for John Brown if you play him, that’s how you must view him. I want to play Donavan Peoples-Jones at $3k but it’s unlikely if value opens on the Rams receivers.
Tight End
This is simply dependent on the available salary. If you can pay for Kelce, then go for it. Andrews is perfectly fine at that price and I think has the best matchup in Baltimore. As for the rest of the Tight Ends, I like Higbee if Kupp is out, but it really comes down to who you think falls in the endzone. Gronk, Hooper, Cook, and Tonyan are all about the same to me. If you can find this week’s Jack Doyle, then have at it.
Player Props
As always, these are taken from Draftkings Sportsbook and while they aren’t recommendations, they are bets I have placed. Last week, I went 4-1 with props so let’s get after it once again.
Nick Chubb, Over 67.5 Rushing Yards (-121)
Mark Andrews, To Score one TD (+200)
Aaron Rodgers, Over 0.5 Total Interceptions (+196)
Cam Akers, Over 87.5 Total Yards (-125)
Patrick Mahomes, Over 0.5 Total Interceptions (+150)
I know, I have some risky ones this week, but I could not find a ton of value in props this week. I think some of the value lies in the edgier picks, so I am going to look brilliant once again or it’s going to get ugly quick. Cheers to another moneymaker week of Locks and Props!
Summary
I think getting double stacks right will be the key to this week
JK Dobbins is risky but creates great leverage while providing a decent ceiling
Last week, you could have Quadruple stacked the Steelers, don’t be afraid to go all out on your convictions
Betting value was difficult this week which forced me to find edgier bets