DraftKings Week 8 Preview
Week 8 brings some interesting matchups and while there seem to be very clear plays, I disagree. Weather is also becoming a major factor but I think people overhype that way too much so let’s think through the slate, and I will go over my player pool as well.
As always, inactive players can change things but it feels like we have most of the information we need for today. I’m sure a lot of you are thinking, what about Carson? The simple answer is, I don’t play RB’s vs San Francisco. Carson has been heavily utilized in the passing game but for DFS, I want a higher ceiling matchup. I briefly mentioned the weather, most people are scared of high winds but it takes some serious winds for pass rates to fall.
Pass rate with windspeed. Tweeted by Hayden Winks.
NFL completion % tends to drop 1-4% with passing. Tweeted by Pavel Vab, elaborated on by Hayden Winks.
Essentially, unless wind speeds are consistent throughout the game at 25+ mph, then you shouldn’t downgrade plays too much. The data is rivaling what our subconscious is likely telling us, and that’s why we want to be data-driven and think through these scenarios. There are a couple of games with high enough winds permitting downgrades, but I am not scared of games like CIN/TEN. Two teams that are pushing the pace, so this should be a nice game to target. I actually think that Jonnu Smith might be the best pivot in this game. King Henry is gonna get his, but at 8k there are avenues where the TD’s go to Brown and a finally healthy smith. I have Tannehill in my player pool and in lineups I play him, then It’s likely I double stack with Brown and Smith to create leverage off Henry. Don’t get me wrong, Henry going for 30-40 points here is extremely possible and I will play him in 3 mans/small tournaments, but we are here to find tournament-winning leverage.
Currently player pool. I never play all of these guys, but I narrow down my pool and then build lines according to my game theory.
Here’s my thought process at the moment. As you can see I am fading Lockett even though I love Russ. SF has a depleted secondary, good against the run, and the SEA RB injuries might funnel more pass plays for Russ. Seattle never blows teams out, is also decent against the run and we know that Shanahan will increase his situation neutral pace if the opponent calls for it. In essence, this game environment makes Jimmy G the top QB value on the slate, and also creates another opportunity for Russ to go nuclear. I am fading Lockett and going Metcalf this week. However, we haven’t seen a 30 point outing for Metcalf so I am actually concerned about his ceiling for his price. My leverage play in the Seattle offense is David Moore. He’s getting targets and if neither Lockett nor Metcalf pays off their price then David Moore had to steal some work from them. Due to the RB injuries and SF being good against the TE I think Moore could receive 5-6 targets and those are worth a lot more from Russ than most QB’s. On the SF side, Ayiuk is the value play. No Deebo, Bourne is average (play him if you want, but I’m not), and Kittle is not cheap. I think you can play Ayiuk by himself bc he gets several rushing plays per game. As for Kittle, if he is going to pay off 7k, then Jimmy G is going off as well. Double stacks are fine as well.
TEN/CIN is my second favorite game of the week. Burrow is a stud and can be double stacked with 2 of his 3 WR’s. I like Higgins and Green the most based on price, but Boyd is fine too. I just don’t like paying 6.6k for him. TEN is poor against the run, but I’m off GIO. I think they get Perine or Trayveon Williams more involved this week, but if you think I’m wrong then GIO is a great value at 5.8k. I already hit on Tennessee’s skill player earlier.
I doubt I play Carr, Cleveland is a pass funnel so I like him, but Jimmy G is just better. Waller is a great play though. I hate paying up for TE, but he is basically a slot WR. I’m off Ruggs with the high winds. 25+ there and I don’t Carr tries to push it downfield to Ruggs this week. As for Cleveland, Bryant is fine again and still cheap. I wrote last week how if you’re not paying down at TE then what are you doing? I still believe that and it’s unlikely I play kittle because I just think it’s a bad move to pay up at TE. Hunt is one of the top plays of the week so if he is going to go off then this is the game.
QUICK HITS - Cook looks healthy and looks like a nice leverage play off of Henry. If Taylor can’t do it against a run funnel then I don’t know when he will. Bell had a 50/50 split with Helaire last week and is cheap. Perine is sneaky for me because the chiefs give it up on the ground and his snap rate is increasing. He is also the pass-catching back in a game they should trail by a hundred.
If I play a Minnesota WR then it won’t be together. Usually one goes off and the other doesn’t. I don’t know if I pay up for Adams, he is costly, but I would like to get there. Kenan Allen is too cheap for his target share and if he falls in the endzone then you’re golden. By the way, if you love Herbert, I get it because he has been a top 5 guy for 3 straight weeks and you could double stack him with Allen and Henry with Jeudy/Albert O on the bring back. Also, I know Fant has returned but Albert O is cheap, getting targets and the Broncos have WR injuries galore. Miami is an absolute lock for me. Cheap, surprisingly surpassed the Steelers in pressure rate and the Rams are flying cross-country on a short week.
TOP LEVERAGE PLAYS - Dalvin Cook, Jonathon Taylor, David Moore, Darren Waller, Jonnu Smith Good luck and as always, there are great rewards with accurate conviction plays. (Including thinking I’m wrong)