Rob's Recap - Week 10
Going into this week’s slate, I looked at my main lineup and thought this could be my best lineup all year to date. It turned out it only looked good on paper as they struggled to profit much. If you’re a seasoned user on DraftKings, you understand that when a player is hot, a flame will appear next to their name. When a player is cold, a snowflake will appear next to their name. Let’s just say I had more snowflakes than flames this week. Here’s where I went right but mostly wrong.
QB - Kyler Murray
30.90 Points, Price: $8,000
Murray has been the best fantasy QB through week 10 and he didn’t disappoint this week. There are not many negative points here other than he would’ve finished in the mid-20s had Hopkins not caught the miracle between four Bills players to win the game. Kyler’s running ability and pass-catchers allow him to be comfortably playable each week.
14.50 Points, Price: $7,100
Going into this game, most of us thought the Packers would easily handle the Jaguars and turn it into a chew-clock type of game which would’ve meant more touches for Jones. Also, the weather report in Green Bay was gloomy which typically indicates more rushing than passing. This didn’t turn out to be how the game played out. The Packers were playing from behind for a large portion of the game which made Rodgers throw 34 times, and Jones only carry the ball 13 times. 14.50 points for Jones isn’t a terrible investment, however, for his $7,100 price he should be somewhere in the 20s. If Jones made it to the end zone this week, where he has more than half the games he’s played this year, he would’ve been closer to his value.
8.40 Points, Price: $4,000
We’ve all seen what Mike Davis is capable of when McCaffrey is out. For the price point of $4,000, this seemed like a steal. The Bucs brought it in the second half by holding the Panthers to only 6 points after the halftime break. This didn’t fare well for Davis since they were playing catch-up and just couldn’t move the ball at all. To be fair, Davis did suffer a minor injury that seemed to change his impact on the game. Only getting the ball into their best playmaker's hands 11 times (7 rush, 4 receptions) is partly on the Carolina coaching staff.
4.80 Points, Price: $7,600
This was simply the worst play of the week. Metcalf, who has been so dominant all season, was completely shut down and flustered by Jalen Ramsey. Only catching two balls for 28 yards on limited targets was disappointing. My thought process here was Ramsey would be shadowing either Metcalf or Lockett and on the plays he wasn't on Metcalf, Metcalf would be heavily targeted. This wasn’t the case since Ramsey locked up Metcalf on just about every play. Be confident in Metcalf moving forward since he’s been so dominant all year.
25.30 Points, Price: $7,500
In the most exciting game of the week, superstars on both sides of the field showed up. Diggs was one of them. Through 10 weeks, it's evident Josh Allen’s favorite target is Diggs. A late-game touchdown definitely helped Diggs's production, but without it, he still would’ve had a solid game. He has been a safe pick all year and will continue to do so with the targets he receives weekly which have made him the #1 PPR receiver through 10 weeks.
6.70 Points, Price: $5,700
Out of 10 weeks, Kirk has had double-digit fantasy points in 7 of them. Coming off his three best weeks of the year, in addition to being in a high scoring contest, I’m almost shocked Kirk didn’t have higher production. This game became nuts in the fourth quarter and when things get out of hand, Kyler Murray typically has tunnel vision to DeAndre Hopkins. To me, this is what got in the way of Kirk reaching double digits.
1.60 Points, Price: $2,600
Hollister was a cheap play at $2,600 with the hope of some production. Every week I try to put in some cheap plays which allow me to add more superstars to my lineup. Hollister not only didn’t produce much of anything, but the superstars I paid for with Hollister's budget cut (Metcalf, Jones) didn’t pay off either. Despite a bad week from my cheap play, I will continue to use this strategy moving forward to play more superstars.
5.40 Points, Price: $5,000
Duke Johnson has a tendency to produce when he is given the duties of lead RB. At a cheap price with major upside, I thought Johnson would be a phenomenal play since he was the only RB in Houston this week. This game as a whole was a complete mess. When the final score of a game is 10-7, you’re not going to get much fantasy production from players involved unless your name is Nick Chubb or Kareem Hunt. Look for Johnson to be a solid and cheap play moving forward with David Johnson remaining on the IR.
5.00 Points, Price: $2,400
Picking a defense every week is tricky. I usually try to pick as cheap as possible to use the remaining money on positional players. For me, picking a defense in DraftKings is the least of my concerns with my lineup. Pick cheap and maybe they’ll boom. 5 points from a $2,400 Texans Defense against a Browns offense full of superstars is good enough for me.
What I Learned
Metcalf is human and can be stopped. However, it might take the best and arguably most physical corner in the league to do so. Metcalf will bounce back and you should feel confident playing him going forward.
The Cardinals score a lot of points. Feel confident in playing players in their games each week. Kingsbury loves to keep up the pace on offense which allows for more fantasy points on both sidelines.
What looks good on paper doesn’t always play out the way you think. Go with your gut, but have research to back up your picks. I make this point because this lineup wasn’t my original. I switched out James Robinson and Davante Adams who both had good weeks that would’ve put me in the money in my small tournament contest entries.
The process this week was good although the results were disappointing, however, it's a new week!