Rob's Recap - Week 11
Sometimes you have to make a decision between two players for your lineup. More times than not, it seems the player you go with typically does worse than the other guy you were thinking about. It might cost you your game and cost you some money. That is what happened to me this week playing a Matt Ryan and Calvin Ridley stack over Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen stack in my main lineup. I came in second in two contests both by less than 5 points which were all-or-nothing payouts. Here was my main lineup.
7.28 Points, Price: $6,300
Single digit points from an all-pro QB are highly unlikely. If you listened to the podcast this week, Cody and I loved the ATL vs. NO game and what it brought to fantasy lineups. This was the main reason I went with Matt Ryan. I saw a potential 20-25 point week with another 18-20+ points from Ridley. This was not the case and ended up being my demise. Had Matt Ryan scored a very reasonable 13 points, I would have finished first in two of my bigger payout contests. These are just losses you have to swallow and move on.
14.10 Points, Price $5,600
At a price point of $5,600, Ballage needed exactly 16.8 points to reach his price value. 14.1 points is pretty darn close. If he caught two more of the targets he got that he didn't come down with, he would’ve reached his value and potentially more. To me, coming this close is a win in a pass heavy LA offense. Depending on his price, this coming week is another solid week for a Ballage play going up against a weak Buffalo Bills defense who rank 30th in the league against the rush.
17.40 Points, Price $5,800
Gibson has shown tremendous potential of emerging into a premier RB in the NFL. It’s hard to ask for more than 16 carries for just under 100 yards plus a receiving touchdown from Gibson. Gibson and J.D. McKissic have created an extremely useful “2 headed monster” in the Washington backfield and it’s fun to see them work together. Gibson being priced so low every week makes him a favorite here at RosterUp. Look for Gibson to continue to be playable each week, especially if his price continues to stay within the $5,500-6,000 range.
38.50 Points, Price: $7,400
Man oh man. Keenan Allen has forced us to make the argument for best PPR wide receiver in 2020. He is an absolute monster and target share machine in the Chargers offense. Typically young QB’s throw the ball to their most reliable and efficient WR. This is exactly what is going on in LA. 19 Targets in week 11. Yes, 19 targets! Not to mention, he brought in 16 of those for 145 yards and a TD. This guy is great and I don’t see him slowing down. The only downside is he will go up in price next week and likely in weeks to come as he has increased in price every week since week 2. Regardless, I suggest finding a spot for Allen in your future lineups if money permits.
14.0 Points, Price: $7,000
This was another play I had that didn't pan out the way I thought it would. I put a lot of my chips in on the ATL vs. NO game and it didn't pay off quite well. If I'm not mistaken, Ridley had roughly 11 points at halftime. I thought his was a good thing because he was already half way to his value at 21.0 points. However, the Falcons didn't improve at all in the second half, and didn't even score a TD the entire game. This doesn't help when two of your main plays are Matt Ryan and Calvin Ridley. We've seen Ridley priced among the top receivers this year, so at $7,000 against the Saints without Marshon Lattimore, I thought this was an amazing play. Although it wasn't a terrible play, what you think would happen vs. what actually happens don't always add up.
6.80 Points, Price: $4,900
If I had to pin someone in my lineup as the most unlucky play this week, it would be Meyers. That's saying something with Matt Ryan only scoring single digits. Meyers who has been so consistently dominant since week 2, finished 4th in targets and 5th in yards on the Patriots offense this week. Looking at this you would think Cam had a bad game, or it was a low scoring contest. Well, Cam threw for 365 yards on 40 passing attempts and the final score was 27-20. He simply didn't look Meyers way only throwing to him three times, while in recent weeks Meyers has been in the 6-10 targets per game range. Even though I hate to do this, I'm going to chalk this up as a fluke because based on a high scoring game with a QB throwing for almost 400 yards, Meyers should've been more involved.
18.70 Points, Price: $3,800
Talk about value. A $3,800 priced Goedert in an offense without Ertz against a TE pass funnel Cleveland Browns defense was a no brainer. Pulling in 5/6 targets for 77 yards and a TD this Sunday, Goedert did not disappoint. Goedert is an interesting play going forward depending on his price. Paying high prices for tight ends are hard to justify unless you're paying up for Travis Kelce. The $3,500-$5,500 price is usually where I look for tight ends so Goedert has potential to find his way into my lineup again in coming weeks.
13.40 Points, Price: $6,900
McLaurin sat right in the same wheelhouse as Calvin Ridley this week. Both similarly priced, and both reached about two-thirds of their value. I can't complain much about McLaurin this week because he received the targets, brought in the receptions, he just didn't find the endzone or have enough receiving yards to reach his value. The Washington Football Team has a nice group of young players in Antonio Gibson and Terry McLaurin who I believe will be fantasy stars for years to come. McLaurin has been reasonable priced every week and has a great matchup vs. a pass funnel Cowboys defense in week 12.
5.0 Points, Price: $2,300
If you continue to read my weekly recaps, you'll see the same trend when it comes to paying low prices for defenses. The only time I'd pay up for a defense is if I have extra money and I really love a defensive matchup. This week the Dolphins defense caught my eye against a fairly weak Broncos offense. Priced at $3,400, I'm glad I didn't take the Dolphins because they also scored 5.0 points. Do you see my point? Even if a defense has a really good matchup, more often than not they'll finish in the same range as a lower priced defense. Similar to last week's defensive recap, 5.0 points from a $2,300 priced Falcons defense is good enough for me.
What I Learned
- Fantasy football really is a game of inches. I lost by single digits which translates to a couple more yards, a couple more catches, or even one more touchdown. It's just going to go that way sometimes. Don't get discouraged because when you're on the other end of the score and you win by single digits, it's one of the best feelings in fantasy football.
- Even if guys are trending upwards (Matt Ryan, Jakobi Meyers) they are subject to have bad games as well. Don't give up on them in future weeks. The good thing about this is they'll likely be priced cheaper next week and have more ability to reach their value while you can bulk up your superstars with that extra money.
Thanks for tuning in. See you next week.