SimBull Cowboys: Should You Invest In Jerry's World?
The Dallas Cowboys might be the world's most valuable franchise, but do they have value on Simbull? With Dak Prescott returning and the ever consistent hype-train rolling in the heart of Texas, let's analyze whether or not Jerry's World is worth the investment.
Why Invest In The Dallas Cowboys on Simbull?
The Dallas Cowboys, a franchise so valuable it'll numb your mind. At $5.7 billion, Jerry Jones has built an empire to last, but the organizations on field performance has faltered since the late 1990's. By taking on the moniker, "America's Team", Dallas catapulted themselves into the NFL stratosphere. Not only were they a successful franchise prior to Jerry's purchase, already dominating primetime games with a growing national fanbase, but Troy Aikman, Jimmy Johnson and company helped take that to another level. Sure, it was after a rough patch in the 1980's, but Jerry came in, they won 3 Super Bowls and the rest is history. The Dallas Cowboys became a must watch team regardless of record. Now, that's valuable. It doesn't matter if they're 1-15 or 15-1, people will tune in to enjoy their misery or celebrate their triumphs. Rarely are the feelings neutral. However, what does that imply about their upside on Simbull? Simply put, we know there will be general interest in the most popular franchise as the Simbull stock market for sports attains more users. I think this can be used to the buyers advantage as long as the 2021 season is met with significant strides and the market presents a value.
2021 Outlook For The Cowboys
Not only Does Dallas feel like a safe investment due to its real world valuation, but there's also reasonable expectations to not only contend, but potentially win the wide open NFC East Division. Don't get me wrong, the Cowboys are easily one of the most overrated and overhyped teams on a yearly basis; however, let's set all polarizing opinions aside and study this analytically.
Prescott Returns - Through 5 games, Dallas had a scored a touchdown on nearly 33% of its offensive drives with a 55% success rate through the air, but the TD number was cut in half with Andy Dalton while the success rate decreased to 45%.
Ezekiel Elliot's Dependencies - If last year taught us anything about Running Backs, it's that only Derrick Henry matters. You can make the argument for a couple others but Zeke is simply not one of those. Unless the environment is perfect, he's terrible. His splits with Dak are a 56% success rate (71% RZ) compared to just 48% (37% RZ) without Prescott in the lineup. As for the Offensive Line, they fell from top 10 to just 29th overall in Run Blocking. The data is clear, Ezekiel Elliot is overpaid and environmentally dependent. The good news? His perfect environment returns and he's been added to the list of "players who lost weight because they were garbage the previous year" so that's got to mean something right?
Continuity - Though the 2020 struggles were real and they were 2-3 with Dak, I do expect this coaching staff to find their stride and become more creative with a healthy lineup and full off season. I was not impressed with McCarthy and company's preparation or in game decisions but I'll reserve judgement for another day. We need to see what happens with a healthy team and complete off season.
Defense Can't Get Worse - That's it. That's the analysis. The defense can literally not be worse. They were utterly and historically abysmal. While Dan Quinn defenses were fun to pick on in DFS, Mike Nolan might somehow be worse, so I do expect some positive regression for a unit that made my screen very green on Draftkings.
HardKnocks are Hard To Ignore
I have no idea if HBO's widely recognized show, "HardKnocks", is going to effect this market but I do know that if it pertains to the Dallas Cowboys, then people will watch. It's certainly far more watered down than previous years but when the show airs for Episode 1 on August 10th, you can bet I'll be asking myself, will this move the needle on SimBull? I have no way of knowing for sure but I do want to have my personal shares of the SimCowboys in hand in case the general public decides to make their way to the TradeBlock for some emotional purchases. Full Disclosure, this is a highly speculative statement and certainly not one for which I will make a purchasing decision, but it is something to consider when dealing with a new, speculative stock market for sports.
Where's their Value on Simbull?
Considering the above data and opinions, the SimCowboys are currently only the 12th most expensive team for purchase at the writing of this article. The Washington Football team is just a hair ahead of them while the Eagles and Giants land towards the bottom 10 in pricing. Considering the popularity, upside and current price, I think Dallas is a reasonable value on SimNFL. The Cowboys have paths to downside which you will see below but you won't be paying a premium on the world's most valuable franchise, according to Forbes.
The Case Against the Dallas Cowboys
When I originally began writing about Simbull, my goal was to take a comprehensive look at each team to determine if they are a long or short term buy. I think managing expectations with each purchase is ideal and while I do believe the Cowboys are actually a potential value at their price, it's the Cowboys, so I do heed caution because the last 25 years have taught us that they can and will find a way to underperform expectations. They should contend for an NFC East crown this year and for the foreseeable future but if you think Danny Dimes is worth a Nickel then you might want to consider alternatives. There are reasonable paths to failure for any team in this division and the Cowboys are no exception. What if Fitzmagic actually takes a super talented Washington Football team to the next level? What if Jalen Hurts is a hit or what if McCarthy and company are just a train wreck? All these are potential outcomes so you have to weigh the risk and decide for yourself what you feel is the most probabilistic outcome.
How Do I Invest In The SimBull Cowboys?
All you need to get started is promo code "rosterup". Go to simbull.app and enter that code to receive a $10 credit with ANY first deposit. Please note, that while we are excited for the prospects of SimBull, it's still a speculative market so make sure you understand that before putting real money into it. Our plan at Roster Up Media is to approach each team from a micro and macro view so that expectations are well managed prior to purchase. This isn't investment advice, rather, it's what we would/are doing in this particular situation.
Note: All stats and data are per Football Outsiders, Pro Football Reference, and Sharp Football Analysis.