Week 10 Player Pool
Another day of NFL DFS is upon us. Week 10 has arrived and we are well past the halfway point of the 2020 season. Soak it up, folks, in 3 months we will be dreaming of NFL Redzone and bad beats while praying for the arrival of March Madness' distraction. Now that we're strapped in with some perspective, let's dive into my weekly Saturday night player pool!
QB - Starting us off is the Cardinals' RB1, I mean Quarterback, Kyler Murray. No, really, he's their RB1 and I talked about this in last week's preview and review so let's move on to where I tell you he's good at football. Ok, so Kyler is good at football. If you can afford him, then have at it. I'm not sure if he makes my final 6 or 7 lineups solely based on that 8k salary, but he is a cheat code that will glitch his way right into the endzone. Josh Allen is back! I've talked about this several times, but the Bills are hyper-adaptable. Easily one of the best coaching staffs in the league so they will be ready for a shootout in Arizona. Allen has rushing upside, and the Bills showed us last week that they will abandon the run completely. This is great news for Allen. While the Cards give up the 10th most YPA (4.6), I'm not too worried about Moss or Singletary being heavily involved. It's clear they like Moss better than Singletary, but they won't intrude on Allen's outlook too much. In regards to this range, Russ is always playable, but the rushing upside is less than Kyler and Allen. That's the primary difference in this range.
Dropping down to the middle class, I think you can roll with Goff. If you're paying 6.5k for him, then you are going to want to stack him with a couple of pass catchers. I think if he's approaching 30 fantasy points then so are a couple of his WR's so keep that in mind when building tournament lines. Big Ben is in a great spot, but pay close attention to the weather in this one. If winds start creeping into the 20-25+ mph range, then I'm out. You can refer to the Week 8 Preview for my thoughts on approaching the weather and when it matters. I don't think Big Ben is an amazing play, but we know Cincinnati likes to push the pace. They are 8th in situation neutral pace and throw 63% of the time. This paired with the Steelers 61% pass rate creates an environment with blow-up potential. The problem is always going to be Pittsburgh's incredible defense, so while that does cause hesitation, I am intrigued by this game. Wentz at 5.9k just seems too cheap. The Eagles are getting healthy and about to run away with the NFC East. Wentz has been balling with the children of the corn at his side and now his Offensive line, Running Back, and receiving core is getting healthy. The Giants defense has been better than expected, but I'm still buying Wentz at this price. He just always seems to crawl his way to 20+ points each week. If you want to get really cute in a large field tournament, then glance at Danny Dimes. He's more likely to throw Dimes to Darius Slay (Eagles DB) than Darius Slayton, but we've seen him blow up against the Eagles pass funnel defense already. So if you're desperate, which you shouldn't be, then have at it.
RB - To start, Kamara is always fine at 8.2k, I just prefer other guys at a fraction of the price. Jones is looking healthy and too cheap against the Jags. He will be popular, but for good reason. The Jags give up the 6th most YPG and the 13th most YPA. As 13 point underdogs, they should have Aaron Jones' cleat's imprinted on their chest. There is a world where the Davante Adams/Jamaal Williams combo grabs a couple of TD's so I don't think it's outrageous to fade Jones. He delivers sub-par performances relative to this price all the time. I will play him, but maybe not as much as most. I think Chubb and/or Hunt create fantastic leverage on the field this week. I'm already seeing people hop on the Miles Sanders train as leverage, which is a great play, but I think it's possible that the Cleveland backfield delivers because Houston gives it up to every position, especially RB's (5.1 YPA). Look, I understand the risk involved with this play, but you don't take down a big tournament without a little risk. Hunt has been a massive letdown in Chubb's absence so it's unlikely I play him at all, but Chubb is finally healthy. According to reports, he practiced this week without a brace and was officially taken off IR today. No one wants to play the guy coming off a sprained MCL, especially when he's splitting touches, but Chubb is special. The guy still leads the league in 20+ yard runs and hasn't played since week 4. Let that sink in. There's also this tweet from Josina Anderson.
Until he gets tired? I like the sound of that. Again, this is a very risky play, and I felt the same way about Josh Jacobs last week, but let's not make this about me even if it is an article about what I think. Anyways, at least consider Chubb in tournaments. He's primarily a large field tournament play but follow the news closely to ensure his health prior to lock. I already hit on Sanders a little. Phenomenal leverage off the chalky combo of Davis/Jones, but I do think he gets popular because everyone is going to recognize this. Especially if we get word before 1 that Drake is playing. Giants are 5th against the run (3.7 YPA), but the Eagles Offensive Line is finally healthy and Sanders seemed fine in practice all week. He's a stud at 6.4k who can hopefully make it through a whole game. Edmonds was a chalk bomb last week, but let's keep in mind that Murray is the RB1. Edmonds still received 96% of the RB work so the volume is there, he just didn't get the TDs. The Bills can be run on (4.6 YPA) so if Drake is ruled out then he is perfectly playable again. Just remember, Kyler is going to pull it on the zone read and glitch his way into the endzone while we tilt our faces off.
Dropping below 6k, I have 3 guys for you this week. Mike Davis is egregiously priced at 4k. The same person at CBS that tried to make me watch Colts/Ravens last week must work at Draftkings now. Shoutout to RedZone for the bailout. We've still got Boston Scott priced at 6k and they dropped Mike Davis, who is better, down to 4k? Ridiculous. The whole slate now hinges on what this guy does. Look, he's the top overall value. He should get to 15 points mostly on catches so the question becomes what does everyone else do? It's all relative. If Davis goes for 20+ and you don't have him, then you need the guys you did play to beat him significantly. Most sites are probably going to have him projected around 16-19 points, which is expected. It's hard to envision a day where he scores less than 10, but we did see him finally get slowed down the last couple of weeks without CMC. The Bucs aren't giving up anything on the ground, but they do give up the second most catches to RB's so Davis can easily get there. In fact, he had 8 catches for 74 yards the last time these teams met. If you fade him, then hold on tight, because the sweat will be on. The pivots off of him are probably going to be Gibson and Swift. Two guys with paths a little less clear than Davis, but with massive ceilings. The Lions have no Golladay, and potentially no Hock, although I think he plays. Swift's role is growing, and if one of the worst staffs in football cuts him loose then he can go off. The problem is that they are one of the worst staffs in football, and probably hand it to AP 15 times for 2 YPC. I seethe with anger at the thought of that. If you can't stomach Swift, I get it so let's move to the other side of the ball where Antonio Gibson is just waiting to emerge. We've seen more from him than Swift and the matchup is even better. The Lions give up the 6th most YPA and the 3rd most YPG. The ownership is being siphoned off to Davis, Duke Johnson, and Aaron Jones so I think Gibson gives you plenty of leverage. He is playable with or without these chalkier pieces, but either way, he creates leverage due to your ensuing build once you plug him in. I actually hit on the Washington backfield in Thursday Thoughts so part of this play hinges on an increased target share for the Washington RB's. This includes McKissic but he and Gibson are often on the field at the same time so I think there's plenty to go around.
WR - When it comes to Wide Receiver, let me start off by saying to just correlate whoever you roll with. I hit on correlation all the time, but it simply matters too much for me not to mention it again. Ok, on to the alien that is DK Metcalf. Many expect Ramsey to shadow him, but Ramsey hasn't shadowed every week this season. In fact, he's been used in the box quite a bit, which would put Lockett square in his sights. On paper, Ramsey should be on Metcalf while Lockett is left to feast in the slot. However, the Rams DC, Brandon Staley, has shown a willingness to scheme according to the opponent, hence Metcalf making my player pool. I would prefer Ramsey shadow Metcalf because I want to play Lockett at 6.5k after that egg he laid last week, but it really ends up being a coin flip here. I still think Ramsey shadows Metcalf, but there's enough data on the Rams that tell us it isn't certain. I likely get Metcalf into a lineup as bring back in Goff stacks, and likely do the same with Lockett. David Moore has been fruitful for me the last 2 weeks so you can always drop down to him, but I'm not sure you need him this week. On the other side of the ball are the Rams WR's, and it's obvious why. Seattle games consistently produce the most plays and points per game. Say it with me now, "They. Are. A. Pass. Funnel." I'm not actually sure that Seattle is using defensive backs this year, but even if they are, it doesn't matter. They are going to give it up. Kupp and Woods are both playable and stackable with Goff. Kupp has the larger air yards share which creates a higher ceiling but don't sleep on Josh Reynolds. He can burn them deep and is your salary saver of the week at WR.
Arizona and Buffalo WR's are all playable as well. I am off of Hopkins due to the price you have to pay for a Tredavious White shadow. No, thank you. Larry is old so Kirk is the guy to target. He's been rolling lately and should have a great matchup in the slot. I talked last week about Buffalo's slot deficiencies so there should be plenty of opportunities. All Buffalo WR's are playable with John Brown being my favorite. They clearly wanted him involved last week and he finished one yard away from the 100-yard bonus. He might cost more this week, but reaching 100 yards and scoring a touchdown is well within reach. Diggs will be popular in Allen stacks and I will play him. I am not afraid of the Patrick Peterson shadow plus Diggs gets so many targets that he can pay off his price just fine. He, too, is due a touchdown. Beasley, I'm never playing, but Davis is still cheap and clearly will be involved. He should have had another TD last week had McDermott challenged the play. They really like him, and I really like cheap players in high totals.
Time for the best of the rest. Boyd has the best matchup in the slot against Pittsburgh and I already hit on why that game can go over its total, weather depending. San Francisco manufactures touches for Ayiuk so I like his potential at that price. Lattimore seems to be improving as the season progresses, but I think Ayiuk can still pay off his price. Jeudy has gone absolutely nuts the last two weeks. He leads the league in Air yards and is in a phenomenal spot once again. Back to the Pit/Cin game, I have Dionte Johnson pegged as my favorite skill position player. Why? He's the cheapest and sees about 10 targets per game that he finishes. The injury risk is high with this one, but so is the ceiling. Claypool is always fine with me, but I'm never in on JuJu. Parker is basically the last man standing in Miami. He has the greatest target potential of the 5k guys even though the matchup is a little tougher. I am a big fan of Shepherd this week, especially if Tate is out. I expect Slay to be on Slayton and the Giants can't run the ball so they've got to go somewhere. At 5k, I think Shepherd is a nice leverage play off of Parker, barring injury news. Hopping to the Eagles, I've got Reagor pegged as a play this week. It's possible the Eagles spread it around so much that no WR really pays off, but we know they want to get him the ball. I'm not sure who Bradberry shadows, but with Alshon returning and Fulgham improving, it's hard to predict how they deploy Bradberrry this week.
While I love Kenan Allen at 7.1k, the guy I want this week is Michael Thomas. This might be the cheapest we see him for a long time. He only played about 50% of the snaps last week, but he was returning from injury and they annihilated the Bucs. Regardless, he escaped healthy and led the team in catches. With the 49er's coming to town, I think the opportunity for a nice day is there. San Francisco is simply depleted on defense. They might even have fewer defensive backs than Seattle. It's pitiful how many injuries that team has, and while another blow-out looks to be in the cards, maybe it stays close enough for Thomas to do his thing. At the very least, I think he's the reason they build a lead which is why I don't have Kamara in the sheet this week. You can also correlate him with Ayiuk, if needed. Thomas is also fantastic leverage off the chalky game stacks of SEA/LAR and ARI/BUF.
TE/DEF - I'll keep this section short and sweet. Engram has received 3 straight games of 10 targets, and now gets an Eagles team that has become a TE funnel. By the way, Shepherd and Engram are great bring-backs in any game stack should you choose that route. Goedert is 4.2k. I think he will be chalky, but I don't think he's a must. Still a great price for him though. Last on the sheet is Jacob Hollister. You guys know I love my cheap TEs so Hollister is the guy. Actually, any Seattle TE is fine because they are all super cheap and typically see a couple of targets although it appears Hollister has usurped Olsen and Dissly as the primary pass catcher.
For defense, seek pressure rate, don't worry about points against, and just pick a cheap one in a bad weather game. Right now I have Houston/Cleveland as plays depending on available salary. If the GB game gets as bad as they say then you can even play JAX at 2k. As always, high variance positions create high variance outcomes so keep it cheap where possible.
I will be updating the spreadsheet as news breaks tomorrow morning but Good Luck and #RosterUp!
Top Leverage Plays - Goff, Wentz, Chubb, Sanders, Gibson, Thomas, Shepherd, Reagor
Summary
Monitor Weather in CLE/HOU, GB/JAX, and PIT/CIN
Murray is the RB1, Kirk and maybe Edmonds are the best stacking partners
Allen CAN be double stacked (Diggs/Brown, Brown/Davis, etc.)
Goff SHOULD be double stacked
Chubb is RISKY but I like him
The slate hinges on Mike Davis, top value, tough to fade him
Thomas is too cheap
Correlate, correlate, correlate