Week 13 Player Pool
Updated: Dec 9, 2020
As Season-long lives are on the line, and some already over, let me say welcome back to another week of the season that never ends! By the way, do people ever realize they have an 8% chance at winning their 12 team league? If you're part of the 92%, hopefully, I can help salvage your season. Now, let's dive into some DraftKings specific DFS before your spouse realizes you've been eliminated from playoff contention and you have to explain losing your buy-in.
QB - For the first time all year, I'm skipping the 7k range and Justin Herbert. Starting us off is A-ARON!!! Mr. Rodger is balling. The eagles are a pass funnel and the Packers are finally healthy at the skill position. However, what scares me is Rodgers losing his Center against that Eagles front four. That certainly gives me hesitation, but Rodgers has absolutely balled out this year so you can play him comfortably. Next up is Taysom Hill. He hasn't thrown a pass TD yet, and I am a little worried that he is being exposed as a passer, but we know this is a premier matchup for QBs. Plus, the Saints pass pro has a massive advantage over the Falcons pass rush. If you don't like Hill, then I think you can get almost the exact same player in Cam at 5.8k. I considered having him in, but my Michael Thomas love ultimately had me go Hill over Cam. Tannehill is in a great spot and is my first real leverage play of the week. The Browns are once again strong on the D-line after a brief hiatus so I think they sell out to stop Henry. Ward has also been ruled out so I think this opens things up for the Titan's passing game as well. The Browns can generate significant pressure and the Titans are hurting along the Offensive line, but if they can hold off Garrett and company then I think this defense that has given up the 3rd most TDs through the air can be beaten.
Dropping below 6k, we have a lot of options. Stay tuned for adjustments prior to lock, but right now I have Carr and Ryan in my player pool. I have repeatedly broken down why the Jets are a plus matchup for QBs, and with Jacobs ruled out, it's possible that Carr throws a little more than normal. The Jets also surrender just 3.8 Y/C so their greatest vulnerability is through the air. They allow the 3rd most yards per game, 4th most TDs, and a comfy 5.1% TD rate. People have a bad taste in their mouths from Carr last week, but is there a better get right spot than the Jets? The answer is no, but I get it if you don't play him because the ceiling is not that high outside of the Chiefs game, apparently. Ryan is last on my list for now and it purely hinges on the Julio news. If Julio is ruled out then I am not touching Ryan. However, I love him as a tournament play if he is playing. This man was mid-6k's all year, and while the Saints Defense is amazing, Ryan at 5.6k is always going to be attractive to me. He's made me too much money to not have a soft spot in my heart, but I legitimately think he could have a solid week this week. The Saints defense has allowed the 4th fewest Y/G, but the 5th most TDs/G. They have seen very few attempts against them, primarily due to their league-slowest pace and clock control. The Falcons have to throw, they cannot run on the Saints. If successful, it can speed up the game, and create an optimal environment. Like Tannehill, If Ryan can get the ball out of his hands quick enough, then I think a secondary without Janoris Jenkins can be burnt a couple of times. If not, it could be another 8 sack day for the Saints defense, which is outrageous.
Overall, I wouldn't worry about ownership at quarterback this week. It should be spread out. I am also considering Trubisky if Allen Robinson plays. If Robinson and Mooney are out, then I don't think I want him, even at 5.4k. I mentioned Cam already, but my dark horse of the week is Sam Darnold. It's an insane statement, and I actually just threw up typing that, but hear me out for a second. If you wanted to play Henry and Cook, with another expensive player, then you need some cheap upside. Mims will be popular, and I love Mims this week. If Mims goes off, which we all expect, then Darnold had to do something right. The Raiders allow the 6th most Y/G but only a 4.3% TD rate. Darnold has a TD rate of 1.4%. Just awful, but some regression on both ends could be in store. If it comes true, then Darnold outscoring the rest of the guys in the 5k range is not as crazy as it seems. He's broken, I get it, but something to consider if you are desperate for salary space and playing in a larger field tournament.
RB - The 9k range brought difficult decisions, and I decided on Dalvin Cook. Fading December Derrick Henry might turn out to be the dumbest move in my life, but I have to take a stand somewhere. If he goes for 40 again, then so be it. Cook gets the Jaguars. A much easier matchup against the 4th worst run defense awaits, and maybe his volume is more clear with Mattison already ruled out. There is a bit of a scare with his ankle and whispers of a limited workload, so check the news prior to lock. However, if his workload is secure, then I'll take his matchup over Henry's. Nick Chubb, yards per carry stud. 53 over/under. Role increasing. There's your analysis. His ownership never gets too heavy either because 7.7k is a lot to pay for a guy who never catches passes. Do you know what else is a lot for a player that doesn't catch passes? 9.2k. Looking at you December Derrick. Please don't go off. Chubb is basically a cheaper Henry. I struggled to put Aaron Jones at minimal ownership in here. I might pivot to him tomorrow, but for now, it's Chubb/Ekeler. Speaking of Ekeler, what's not too like? Pats are weaker against the run plus he has a massive target share in full games played. He looked fantastic last week and shoutout to James Mcwilliams at Jet Up for plugging him in. He should see 7-10 targets as a floor and hopefully can fall into the endzone. This game is also a sneaky pace adjusted pace-up spot.
As we exit the land of the studs, let's keep in mind you can play any of those guys with the cheap QB options available. If your drink is strong enough then you can even play Henry and Cook together by plugging in Darnold. Sounds like some strong stuff. With that said, my tournament brain can't stop thinking about Miles Sanders this week. The Eagles suck, Wentz sucks, Pederson sucks, the Packers run defense sucks. Oh yeah, the Packers' run defense sucks. Tomorrow we find out what's worse, the Eagles playcalling or the Packers run defense. This is purely a play with a disclaimer that says, "If you're not first, you're last." Jordan Howard's inefficient bum will be activated, and if the Eagles go full Matt Patricia then I hope everyone is fired before they leave Wisconsin. Just give Sanders the freaking ball. He's second in Y/C behind only Nick Chubb! He hasn't been healthy, but he has been efficient on a per-carry basis when given the opportunity. Opportunity is the problem though. However, Sanders' Yards to TD rate of just 0.5% is well below the average for players who have received 100+ carries. He is also below the average in Attempts to TDs for players with 100 or more carries and we know he is explosive. Rob explained why he disagreed with this play on the podcast and I get it. This is purely a theoretical play. I am theorizing the Eagles go into Green Bay and run it down the Packers' throats like they did last year. I am not sure how much I play Sanders, but you can rest assured I will put my money where my mouth is at least once. If you're stuck in the mid-6k range, then check out Chris Carson. He's fine and will be a great play if Hyde gets ruled out.
Taylor is another theoretical play. The Texans are the worst run defense in the league outside of the Cowboys. We watched some old guy and Kerryon Johnson have success on them in a negative game script, so I think Taylor can finally have his breakout game here. I wish Wilkins would get ruled inactive, but it won't happen. I am hoping they pick up where they left off before Taylor got Covid, and he finally does something with his opportunities. My final two plays are super obvious volume plays. Booker is filling in for Jacobs against the worst team in the league. Maybe the Raiders throw a little more, but a 51% pass rate won't increase that much. They are what they are, and Booker will receive plenty of opportunities to smash value. Montgomery is a volume play in a great matchup. I think he's bad at football, but volume is volume and he is bound to finally get a rushing TD. He finally showed some upside so he will be popular this week. He actually looked good against Green Bay and should continue that here against the Lions. Wait, was that a Miles Sanders take?
WR - Meet Davante Adams, ruler of all. Also, hope he pays off this crazy expensive price tag or you're dead in the water. You never have to play a WR this expensive, but he will always be difficult to completely fade. Brown and Corey Davis are leverage off Henry and correlation with Tannehill. You can double stack or single stack, the choice is yours. You certainly need a huge day from Brown to pay off that price tag though. Davis should see 6-8 targets against this Cleveland pass funnel even though Humphries is set to return from his concussion. In games played, Michael Thomas has received a 50% Air Yards Market Share, 29% target share, 9.7 ADOT while capitalizing on 71.14% of his Air Yards. Basically, he's due for a receiving TD as much as Taysom Hill is due a passing TD. I am also due an explanation for Sean Payton's obsession over Taysom Hill, but I'll settle for a couple of TDs to Thomas.
While I usually love Ridley and still do, if Julio is active I like his price. People will be scared to play him and the last time this happened he went for 37 points. Ridley and Julio are both top 4 WRs in weeks they play a full game together so that's something to consider if you want to double stack in smaller tournaments. Regardless, 6.6k on a PPR site is cheap, though the risk is high. On to Robert Woods. He seems to succeed against this 49ers secondary so I will take him over Kupp this week. It was difficult to choose between them, but it had to be done. Cooks is an obvious, chalky play. No fuller, in a dome, and on a team with a 60% pass rate at 5.6k. What more do you want. Same for Coutee at 3.5k. Expect both to be popular. I love Chark as a leverage play in this 5k range. He is off the injury report and the Vikings' secondary is awful. They should be throwing plenty, and while these two teams play as slow as molasses, Chark can absolutely burn this secondary in garbage time. I expect him to be less than 5% owned, so hopefully, that remains unchanged by 1 pm. Agholor continues to see 5-6 targets per game and now gets a plus matchup against the Jets. With an ADOT of 13.4, he should burn the Jets deep at least once. I already hit on Davis so my final play is Mims at 4.1k. Unfortunately, everyone else feels the same as I do about him. Rob has frequently discussed playing Mims and I hope you guys did because the days of low ownership are gone. I'm not even sure there's a good pivot off him. Maybe Henry Ruggs or Perriman, but that is certainly daring. The entire industry is banking on positive TD regression for Mims this week. I have already discussed how bad the Raiders are against the pass and I did a deep dive on Mims' peripherals on the podcast. Again, still time to listen. Mims has a 42% Air Market Share and 27% target share while only capitalizing on 50% of his air yards. His time is coming, and if he can get just one half of average Quarterback play then the victory laps are coming.
TE/DEF - Once Jonnu Smith was ruled out, Firsker became a lock for me. Mycole Pruitt should play too, but I am rolling with Firkser. 2.5k and already seeing a few targets a game, I'll live with whatever the outcome is. Gesecki, Engram, and Waller are options if you just want to pay up. As for defense, Rob gave out the Pats play on the podcast, and I am down with that. I think you can also go up $200 to the Chargers if you think Cam keeps throwing to people in different uniforms.
Don't worry about QB ownership, play who you want.
Cook and Henry each have paths to downside, both are great plays, neither is a must
Sanders and Taylor are both High risk/reward plays so allocate wisely
There are pivots off the chalky WRs
In essence, seek volume, environment, and matchup