Week 2 DFS Player Pool
It's week 2, folks. Overreaction week has finally arrived so if you take anything from this article, it's that you shouldn't let emotions drive your analysis. Week 1 is always an absolute rollercoaster.
Consider this a PSA before I dive into my favorite stacks: please take a moment to read the introduction paragraph for the week 1 player pool regarding strategy and contest selection. That will always be more important than whatever some schmo (that's me) says about individual players. Ok, so you've clicked that link and read my contest selection take, right? Good, now you can read what this schmo is looking at for Week 2. Let's kick it off with some stacks that I will personally be targeting this week.
Week 2 Draftkings Stacks
Correlation is king and when we correlate our lineups properly, we give ourselves a chance to immediately get 33% of our lineup correct while having the ability to build around that baseline with correlated pieces from other games. In the words of Mike Leone, "We're just trying to get fewer things wrong". That's always the goal with our DFS content, to get fewer things wrong because the 100% perfect lineup in the milly maker is beyond rare.
Seahawks vs Titans
I literally could have named this "Russel Wilson and a Pass Catcher" but I'm honestly just not trying to have the same exact header for this section as last week. Rob and I discussed this on the pod but the Russ double stack is going to be extremely expensive but you can easily go right back here against an awful pass defense. According to Next Gen Stats, Russel Wilson was the number 1 rated passer in short to intermediate pass routes last week and the Titans were dead last against the metric last week as Hopkins and Kirk just shredded their secondary. Pick a pass catcher, have some fun and watch Russ cook. I'm rolling with DK Metcalf this week by a narrow margin but let's be real, Lockett is a monster when healthy and proves it with these blow up games every year. He was my lock last week so I don't mind him again. If you're looking for some leverage on the Seattle side then take a look at Chris Carson. We know the Seahawks will run the ball and the Titans can't stop that either plus it give you leverage on the field if he hits and the neither Metcalf nor Lockett reach a 75 percentile outcome or better.
As for the Titans, I think AJ Brown is fine for the bring back but I am worried about Tannehill after just 5% play action rate last week. From tops in the league to last? I'm terrified but it's better to be a week early than a week late. Of course, don't forget Rob's conviction play. He's calling for an absolute smash week from Derrick Henry and we do love jumping on these guys after a dud week. People are just going to be afraid to play September Henry and we know they likely feed him after last week. Julio is fine as well after leaving a lot of points on the field with several drops. If you stack a different game, you can easily grab correlated pieces from this one. Carson/Julio or Brown, Lockett or Metcalf/Henry, Lockett or Metcalf/Brown or Julio.
See, there's plenty of ways to stack or correlate from a game without forcing the quarterback in there.
Cowboys Vs Chargers
Another Pace up game loaded with stacking options. Dallas led week 1 in pass rate over expectation in the RedZone and overall while the Chargers were top 8 in both. Basically, this game has shootout potential all over it and if you want to get cute and fade it in large field tournaments then have at it but I'll grab players from this game everywhere I can. This game has likely been discussed as much as any so let me just list out how I am handling this matchup.
Double stacking Dak with Cooper and Lamb or One of those Wrs with a cheaper piece mentioned below
With Chris Harris out, Cedrick Wilson receives an upgrade
Zeke and the Tight Ends are average plays but playable
Herbert can be single stacked or double stacked
I prefer Kenan Allen, Jared Cook or an Ekeler bounce back week and then Mike Williams who might be matched up with Trevon Diggs a week after shutting down Mike Evans
There is no need for me to overthink this or break it down from every angle. The Chargers have a great defense, or at least the potential for one, but points will be scored in this game no matter what.
Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs
I'm looking to be a week early not a week late. This combo is likely the cheapest we see it all year and we discussed this extensively on the podcast. It's obvious that this is a tough matchup and Xavien Howard is an absolute stud. It's also obvious that Josh Allen is matchup proof, historically torches the Dolphins and the Bills desperately need a bounce back win led by an offense with a 70% pass rate. The first two stacks will be easy to put in your lineup, this one will be a little tougher but we're looking for the top 1% outcome anyways.
Week 2 Draftkings Running Backs
Dalvin Cook - Matchup proof in a pace up game. The Cardinals defense has improved and I was on the Henry fade last week because their front seven is better than their secondary but Cook is going to get his no matter what. Run CMC at nearly 10k is always in play but my budget will be stretched too thin if I roll with him this week so my 9k and above stud is once again Cook.
Derick Henry - In honor of Rob, he is calling a Henry smash week so if he fits into your build then never be afraid to play the King.
Austin Ekeler - I think he is a great leverage play in the Dallas/LAC game. After receiving zero targets last week it just feels like that doesn't happen two straight weeks, especially if Trevon Diggs locks down Big Mike Williams.
Jonathon Taylor - Rob loved him last week and we both love him this week. In a game the Colts trailed by a wide margin, he received 17 carries and 7 targets in the passing game but did not score a Touchdown. Maybe you disagree but is Wentz really going to torch the Rams secondary? The only way is to hit them with short to intermediate routes or let Taylor loose.
Joe Mixon - Volume. That's it. They are feeding this man.
Miles Sanders - Leverage play this week for me at $6900. He has 18 or more points in 3 of 4 starts with Hurts and received a 66% rushing share last week. Obviously it was a positive game script and this is risky but that's why iT's A lEvErAgE pLaY.
Chris Carson - $6100 in a game they are favored, I never feel like he has the ceiling I want but he is a great leverage play off of the Seattle passing attack if you go that route, which I might in at least one or two lineups.
Wide Receivers in the Player Pool
SEA/TN - See Above
DAL/LAC - See Above
Calvin Ridley - 8 targets last week in a game that has me worried about this Arthur Smith offense that I may or may not have stacked in one of my FFPC leagues. Ok, enough panic, remember what I said about not having emotional analysis? We know the Falcons will have to throw and one of Ridley or Pitts does something this week. Great leverage after a flop last week and we know for a fact they cannot run the ball, especially against the Bucs.
Diggs - See Above
Justin Jefferson - It's Jefferson week. Last week was Thielen and with only one target being the difference between them, old man Adam got the 2 TDs. A stat full of weekly variance.
Allen Robinson - It's amazing that we literally forget this dude even exists. Oh wait, it's because Andy Dalton has zero ability to throw beyond the line of scrimmage. This play is tough to swallow but I will have some Cincinnati WRs this week and Robinson is perfect correlation after receiving 11 targets in a difficult matchup last week.
Mike Evans - Obviously Godwin/Brown are playable but it feels like they feed little Mikey here after he was shut down against the Cowboys and everyone else had a 5 course meal on that pathetic waste of a secondary.
Cincinatti WRs - Refer to the pod but basically just pick one. Boyd is leverage with a nice matchup in the slot against Jaylon Johnson. However, just pick one in that $4700 - $5400 range or even stack them with Burrow. That's also a thing you can do yanno.
Hunter Renfrow - Rob's cheap guy of the week that I now want to play as well. He has the best matchup of any Raiders pass catcher in a game they should trail.
Terrace Marshal - I liked him last week and he just missed out on a solid week. He had the 3rd highest target share in the offense and saw a couple RedZone targets as well while the team seemed to essentially phase out Robby Anderson. I think Robby gets his eventually since they just signed him to a long term contract but certainly something to watch out of Carolina. Anyways, for DFS purposes, he is only $3300 and the opportunity should be there while the attention is on Moore/McCaffery.
Tight Ends and Defense
Let's just think through this one. Waller will receive 72 targets by halftime and Kittle is playing a Tight End funnel in Philly but the scary part is he was blocking on 35% of pass plays last week which should remain similar against this fierce Eagles pass rush. He is playable but I'm not likely going with either guy here. WALLER IS MATCHUP PROOF. Please read that again, I'm not saying fade him, I just normally place my salary elsewhere.
Pitts received all the opportunity in the world last week and will get that again here. Draftkings knows this and even bumped his price up to reflect his target and opportunity share in an offense that will be forced to pass. For Gronk, I am calling it Mike Evans week but he and Brady will always have eyes for each other. Once you get into the second tier of Tight ends I like Fant and Cook based on their matchups and opportunity in their respective offenses. Beyond that, you can pick a Dallas TE for cheap or see who gets the start for the Texans as they should trail by a lot of points against a Tight end funnel. I likely play Akins if Brown is ruled out.
As for defense, I'm going cheap... obviously.
Your Stacks should allow you to have a baseline to build around.
Aim for getting fewer things wrong
You can stack/correlate without a Quarterback
Contest Selection is king