Week 4 DFS Player Pool
Week four of the 2021 season delivers 5 games with totals greater than 50 points. I expect the majority of these games to approach the Vegas totals based on snaps and pace projections.
Top Draftkings Stacks for Week 4
As always, I'll rattle off some high ceiling stacks to build around your stud Running Backs in efforts to maximize your lineups ceiling by utilizing correlation. Some games offer multiple variations while others might only offer 1v1 correlations without the quarterback but they are important when building around your core stack. Essentially, you should be able to use multiple mini stacks in one lineup so long as the pricing structure works for you.
Bills Passing attack Vs the Texans
Shoutout to Andy Mac at Bills Up for helping me get all aboard the Josh Allen breakout game train last weekend. The pass rate and opportunity was clear but hyper efficiency by Singletary and Moss stole some Touchdowns in previous weeks. That will never last in the Bills scheme and even in a blowout, you can bet the Bills will throw the Ball 65% of the time or more just like they did last week. Don't worry about Diggs (7.6k), his target share hasn't gone anywhere and he's still the top dog in this offense, he just hasn't had the multi touchdown blowup game yet. This could easily be the week and I know Rob and I discussed the expected blowout here but Allen (8k) and a pass catcher building that blowout lead is a safe bet and a great way to start your lineups. I still like Diggs but any secondary receiver such as Sanders or Beasley is a great way to go and has actually been the optimal stack with Allen thus far. No, I'm not bringing it back with any Texans.
Chiefs vs Eagles
A game that is actually sort of tough to stack but has the highest total on the week. I think what's gone unnoticed is that Philadelphia is surprisingly fourth in situation neutral pace according to footballoutsiders.com. A stat that I had to do a double take for and in a home game where they have to pull out all the stops to win, Hurts and company should be forced to put up some fantasy points. Here's some ideas on how to target this game.
Hurts by himself - He's going to run the ball plenty and be forced to throw in a game they should trail but the Eagles spread it around so much that you aren't forced to stack him. I'd bring it back with Kelce or Hill.
Hurts/Smith/KC pass catcher - If I do stack, it's going to be with Devonta Smith who offers the most upside in this receiving corps. Same process as above on the bring back.
Mahomes/Kelce or Hill/Smith - I don't think this needs explaining
Mahomes/Hill/Sanders - Ok, this needs explaining. Hill offers a ton of upside and should blow the top off the Eagles secondary. He's also the tournament play I want in this game but if you're playing cash or 3 mans then Kelce is your safe bet for an easy 20 point game. Sanders is a complete High Risk play. This is a bet on the squeaky wheel gets the grease narrative as he had 2 carries last week and now gets a plus matchup in a game where opportunity should be plenty via pace. Again, this is a tournament only stack and not for the weak of heart.
Another game with potent offense who want to move quickly. McVay finally has a quarterback who can process literally anything at the line of scrimmage and it's proved to be the missing piece to his offense. Stafford's price continues to climb as it has reached 7k this week but I think there's still room for upside against a defensive secondary that's weaker than their front seven. Kupp is finally priced where he should be at 7.8k so the double stack opportunities are minimal. At some point, he won't score 2 touchdowns a game but there is not a safer play than Cooper Kupp right now. Woods is due a game as well and you can certainly stack him with Stafford as well but he seems to be the one that gets dinged when Van Jefferson or DJax go off whereas Kupp is safe no matter what. On the other side of the ball, Christian Kirk has really come into his own with surprising consistency and is my favorite Cardinal at 5.3k although I still like Rondale Moore as a cheap correlation at 4.6k. I'm staying away from Hopkins this week but go there if you wish, he's matchup proof.
Mini Stacks for your Draftkings Lineups
I'm adding this in this week to provide a different perspective on lineup construction. You don't always need an all out game stack but when there's so many totals over 50 with reasonable expected pace, then I like to fill in the gaps of my lineups with those games.
Lockett or Metcalf/Deebo or Kittle
It looks like Tyler Lockett will be fine after last weeks scare and he once again offers plenty of upside in a hyper concentrated offense. I expect a bounce back week from Russel Wilson and company as they are in a must win situation to keep pace with the best division in football. I actually don't think you have to bring it back with a 49er but one of Deebo or Kittle should have a nice day because I don't expect this to be defensive struggle.
McLaurin or Gibson/Ridley
This is actually one of my favorite 1v1 plays of the week. These two teams struggle on defense and are top 11 in situation neutral pace thus far. I don't expect a complete shootout but I do think the pace is there to warrant upside for these guys. McLaurin is my number one play in this game and I do expect him to still have upside at the price of 6.9k. Gibson remained cheap after last week's game against Buffalo that showed his explosive ability but the blowout took the ball out of his hands. Barkley bounced back against this defense last week and so can Gibson. Ridley at 7k is actually the most risky play here. Rob and I discussed at length how bad this Falcons offense has looked at time and they are not pushing the ball down field at all. Ridley is yet to reach double digit targets of 15 or more yards downfield while he was peppered with these high upside targets in year's past. Atlanta can't run the ball so expect them to force feed Ridley and let's hope it's beyond the line of scrimmage for once. He's a solid correlation with the Washington offense and I believe the 7k price tag keeps his ownership down.
Obviously Chuba Hubbard is one of the top plays this week so you can plug him into your lineups. As for the passing attack, here's who I like for each team in order of importance with price and individual matchup factored in.
Carolina - Moore, Marshall, Anderson. DJ Moore is getting peppered weekly while Marshall gets the premier slot matchup against a team susceptible there. Anderson is boom/bust.
Dallas - Cooper, Lamb, Schultz, Wilson. Cooper is priced way down to 6k after two abysmal weeks so I like his upside as a tournament play. Lamb is extremely safe but more expensive at 6.8k, hence the slight edge to Cooper. Schultz and Wilson are just cheap pieces to fill out your lineup with players from valuable games
Running Backs to Target
Derrick Henry (8.8k) - If you need analysis on this then please don't bet any money this week.
Dalvin Cook (8.1k) - Leverage on Henry for Tournaments. Henry will be highly owned and for good reason but I may have a couple lineups where I pivot to the cheaper Cook in hopes of low ownership due to the questionable tag along with a tough matchup. But hey, he's still Dalvin.
Najee Harris (6.8k) - Volume. Steeler suck, but Volume is king.
Jonathon Taylor (6.3k) - The Dolphins are vulnerable against the run and have given up top 5 combined performances to multiple backfields this year. The Taylor volume is there and according to Mike Clay's OTD metric, he sits at -3.3 which basically means this dude is going to have a multi Touchdown day soon. He's risky, clearly, but a good value this week.
Chuba Hubbard (5.9k) - Henry/Hubbard should be the most popular backfield combo this week and it's a combo I will have in a couple lineups as well. Hubbard received over 70% of the work when CMC went out and 10 days of preparation should prove beneficial for him.
Additional Wide Receivers
There are plenty of WRs given in the stacks section but here's a couple I like to fill in the holes. They are guys in good spots but not necessarily in a spot where I want to game/team stack them.
OBJ (5.8k) - Looked Good last week and should get the volume with Landry still out
Allen Robinson (5.8k) - Leverage on a higher owned OBJ and has a great matchup against the Lions. I think Fields actually has a nice day.
Corey Davis (5k) - The Titans are terrible against the pass and while everyone is on the Tennessee defense I actually like the Jets passing offense to exceed these prices. I'm not calling for a win but Davis should get his and correlates nicely with Henry.
Titans Cheapies - With Brown and Julio out, click on Tennessee, scroll down to 3.3k and flip a coin between Rodgers, Reynolds and that other guy with a weird last name. Reynolds is my least favorite if that helps.
Tight Ends and Defense on Draftkings
I'm keeping it simple for any additional tight end plays here and I'm going with either Noah Fant at 4.3k or Albert O at 2.6k. The Broncos should be in a competitive game here against the Ravens and with all the injuries in the WR room I think both Tight Ends meet value. It just comes down to salary cap space in your respective lineups. As for Defense, give me the Lions at 2.2k or the Jets at 2k and pray they don't get negative points. I just need cap space to build out my lineups where it actually matters.